There's a lot up in the air

As global air travel returns to and surpasses pre-pandemic levels, commercial aircraft manufacturers find themselves facing a familiar but expanding challenge: geopolitical tension. China’s claim on Taiwan and the conflict that could result from an invasion is a growing concern. Meanwhile, the escalation of U.S.-China trade disputes, including heightened tariffs and retaliatory measures, is creating new uncertainty for the aerospace sector. The effects are especially visible in the commercial aircraft market and could play a role in shaping the business outlook for composites fabricators that supply major OEMs.

Boeing, the largest U.S. exporter, has been particularly affected — negatively. As of this writing (early May 2025), nearly 130 undelivered Boeing aircraft destined for Chinese carriers sit idle, casualties of tariffs and geopolitics. China’s recent halt in taking deliveries of U.S.-made aircraft and components, apparently in response to heightened tariffs, compounds Boeing’s ongoing challenges in the wake of 737 MAX crashes and accidents caused by engineering and manufacturing errors at the company. These delays have financial implications for Boeing and will cause ripple effects across the broader supplier base.

Meanwhile, Airbus appears to be weathering the current environment more favorably. In 2024, Airbus delivered significantly more commercial aircraft than Boeing — 766 compared to Boeing’s 348. In terms of orders, at the end of 2024 Airbus and Boeing had backlogs of 8,658 and 5,595 aircraft, respectively. Airbus has steadily increased its footprint in the U.S., expanded A220 production, and strengthened its position in China, where it has more than 1,000 deliveries planned through 2026. The company recently signed an agreement to acquire several Spirit AeroSystem sites including facilities in the U.S., France, Morocco, Northern Ireland and Scotland. These acquisitions are part of Airbus’ response to Boeing’s impending acquisition of Spirit, which is expected in Q3 2025.

For composites fabricators, particularly those at Tier 2 and Tier 3 levels, the current trade environment presents both challenges and opportunities. On one hand, long-term demand for new aircraft remains strong — order backlogs at Airbus and Boeing are at record highs. On the other hand, the short-term picture is complicated by tariffs, shifting trade policies and supply chain instability. Tier suppliers of lightweight structures and assemblies and other composite components may face disruptions depending on their customer mix and global exposure. At the same time, materials sourcing may be subject to higher costs or regulatory delays, depending on their origin.

There are also signs of longer-term structural shifts. Europe and other regions are increasing investment in local aerospace and defense supply chains, partially in response to the trade climate. In this complex and evolving environment, adaptability remains key. Suppliers that can diversify their customer base, invest in supply chain resilience and remain agile in the face of changing trade dynamics will be better positioned to navigate the current period of uncertainty. While the trajectory of U.S.-China relations remains difficult to predict, the aerospace supply chain — composites included — will continue to evolve in response.